It's a good thing I wrote my last post when I did and not a week later, as it's true what everyone says about 30 weeks and beyond: the baby grows by half a pound a week, your lungs get more and more compressed, and life is suddenly a lot tougher again. Three weeks on and I can't even run up a flight of stairs without feeling completely winded! These days my rides have as few rises in the road as possible, and my usual quick out-of-the-saddle sprint to get through roundabouts and come out of corners has been reduced to a slow careful slog.
But I can't complain as I'm still fairly comfortable on the bike, the weather has turned to glorious spring, and the longer days means more time to ride in the evenings. It could be a whole lot worse, and frankly I'm going to plan this timing for the next kid too -- it would be horrible to be 30 weeks in the middle of autumn with nothing but dark dreary short days to look forward to for the next four months.
As I've been forced to watch many others pass me by -- quite literally, as every cyclist on a road bike these days overtakes me -- it's been interesting to contemplate this dramatic fall in speed and power and think about my journey through various training partners since I got pregnant. I hesitate to say "regression" though that's of course what it's been; it's nicer to think of it in terms of getting to know various folks in the club as I join them on rides I'd have rarely done otherwise.
Pre-pregnancy to week 6
Still riding lots with Jim and the other 2nd/3rd cat racers in my club, which means hard training sessions and hammerfests that really push my limits at times. Club runs are those of the more social variety as recovery and mental health rides, where I hold back a lot on the flats and drop most people on the climbs whether I'm trying to or not. In other words, I'm in pretty peak form.
Weeks 6-18
The sudden influx of morning sickness means faster-paced club runs are about as hard as I care to ride. Full of fit guys and girls, not road racers but strong TTers and hardened sportivers nonetheless, up for pushing the effort from time to time but mostly wanting a steady good-paced ride and that suits me fine. It's touch and go at times, and I end up doing a lot of solo rides as I just can't tell on any given day how good or bad I'll feel or if I'll want to bail after an hour. But by the end of November I'm still going pretty well, having only gained a few kgs. We hold a club race skills training day at Hillingdon and the 4-lap scratch race at the end turns out to be more fun than I thought. Things are looking up, and when the snow flies just before Christmas I'm out on the cross bike having a blast. Racing has gone out the window though, after a few half-hearted attempts at cross and getting too depressed with how slow I am, I decide my season is officially done, and I'm now sucking the wheels of those fit guys and girls starting their winter training periods.
Weeks 19-29
I'm feeling much better, more or less back to normal, though the weight is piling on and this is having some adverse effects. "Club run pace" is the default for me now, with the occasional burn-up at the end. Raising my stem about 2cm helps accommodate the growing bulk in my midsection, but I find myself having to reach down and physically shift my belly upwards to get comfortable on the bike as occasionally I get a side stitch or ache from the awkwardness of it. I buy an 11-32 cassette (eschewing the 11-34 thinking I'll never want a 34-tooth cog... ha ha, how naive is that!), prompting the guys at Sigma Sport to refer to it as the "maternity cassette". Nonetheless, my ego gets a shock when I end up having to get off and walk up the last 200m of steep and nasty Pebblehill Road near Boxhill. Still, it's going well and I'm actually gaining fitness back, able to do long rides of over four hours and 100km as long as I can stop to pee every hour!
In fact in March I do more miles than I have since the previous July, helped by numerous midweek "work dodgers" rides with fellow Wheelers who are off work or working strange shifts. Of course, the average speed is a lot slower and towards the latter weeks I find myself deliberately avoiding routes with steeper hills. The top corner of Coombe Road, or the steep early section of Crocknorth is about all I can manage now. It's starting to get more than frustrating being dropped up every hill, no matter the gradient, by average club run pace folks, but I can still hold my own on the rollers and flat sections. Ironically, descending becomes more fun and secure with the extra weight, not to mention faster! I'm still leading club runs but generally from 3rd wheel shouting out the turns rather than sitting on the front a lot myself. Clubmates are starting to make jokes about whether they should be prepared to deliver a baby on a ride, and any time I fall to the back of the group I'm met with concerned looks and questions of whether I'm feeling all right.
Weeks 30-?
The end of March sees me off the bike for an entire week as I juggle all the tasks of moving into a new house and getting out of the old flat. The movers come and I can barely go up two flights of stairs empty-handed let alone lift or move many boxes. It's shocking how breathless I've suddenly become, and how quickly my heart races with any small effort. Finally a few days after moving into the new house I get out for a glorious sunny ride and manage 22km/h average speed for the first hour. Three hours later I make it home quite exhausted and I have to admit my 100km riding days are over for now. Club runs now see me volunteering to lead the "newbie" ride, with its slow pace on the flats and even slower pace up the hills (I'm last up the two shallowest hills we ride -- the so-called backmarker -- and get dropped easily now on the smallest of rollers). Richmond Park laps are of the TT-course variety, avoiding both Dark Hill at Kingston gate and Test hill near Robin Hood gate. Any headwind on a hill sees me slow to a virtual crawl. Where's that 34-tooth cog I should have bought!
Worst of all, I no longer have any mental desire to work hard, and my legs feel like jelly if I do. My HR shoots up so high with any effort that I have to ease off otherwise I feel sick. It's like the first trimester all over again, only 25lbs heavier. Riding has become about getting out for some sun and fresh air, and all thoughts of power or speed or effort are completely gone. It's hard to guess what my FTP might be, but I suspect I could not hold more than 175w for an hour these days. Luckily I can diesel along at 130w for several hours still, but I'm getting less and less motivated to ride, and more and more fearful of hills. Still, I'm pretty stubborn and have yet to pull out my upright old MTB for a last-ditch resort to ride on the flat towpaths. Even as I see my CTL drop again (after hitting a max of 85 in week 29) I can't be too fussed about it. Even with the nice weather, I just don't feel like riding much anymore. Though at least I still have a few training partners left, the guys who are coming back from injury or extended lay-offs or just plain fat unfit cabbies (you know who you are!)
The final weeks
This is where it all becomes a mystery. I had said I wanted to keep riding til my birthday which would be the end of the 37th week, but that's looking like a big ask now. To be honest, I'd be happy to go into labour by then! A few weeks early is starting to look like a great plan. In the meantime I'll have to start making plans to stay active somehow. The pool is seeming most likely, and brisk walking seems to feel like proper exercise. In fact, anything but sitting on the couch feels like work...
The future
Over the past several months I've gone through the whole gamut, from riding with the strongest and fittest members of my club to riding with the weakest. It's been strange to measure myself against others and watch the slow decline in performance, knowing that a group I join to ride with will soon be saying good-bye a short while later as they leave me behind. I can only hope that the months after the baby see me progressing back up through the groups, improving the way I declined til finally I can ride with Jim again at his speed. Though of course riding with Jim again is going to mean a whole new problem to solve for both of us! But it's something I've really missed so it's worth the effort to make it happen in the future, even for just a rare Sunday. Anyone want to baby-sit?
Saturday, 16 April 2011
Tuesday, 15 March 2011
"So how long are you going to keep riding?"
... must be the most frequently asked question of me these days when I'm out on a group ride. I guess people assume that sooner or later I'll stop, and I guess I will stop at some point. But when? Who knows? I always say in reply, "as long as I can!" then add that while I've never done gone through a pregnancy before and really can't predict what will happen, I'll continue to ride as long as I'm comfortable and healthy and happy with it. Which is true. I see no reason to get off my bike and with the days getting longer again and the weather improving, the last thing I want to do is stop riding!
The funny thing is, after a huge drop in fitness last autumn (that first trimester really kicked my ass), I've been bouncing back quite steadily. Late last summer, post-peak and post-holidays, my CTL was hovering around 100 with a few road races and a handful of hill climbs to go before taking a real break. Then I got pregnant and by Week 6 -- within two weeks of the embryo implanting itself -- morning sickness had hit and my life was turned upside down.
It was like suffering a two-month hangover. Energy I used to have disappeared, I suddenly went completely off some foods and couldn't get enough of others, training became a miserable chore (so I stopped training, though of course I kept riding), and generally I felt like crap for the next eight weeks. My CTL plummetted from 100 to 59 by mid-November and while I started to feel better around this point and managed to get out more (week 14 marked a big turning point), the bad weather and then going away for Christmas kept me from any consistent riding for a few more weeks.
In the meantime, I had lost a lot of power and had to rejig my FTP to compensate for it. Not wanting to do any proper FTP testing (and I suspect my power curve has gone a bit haywire these days anyway, what with my top end aerobic power dropping like a rock but my low level endurance dieselling along like it always has), I estimated my threshold using perceived effort and muddling with the intensity factor of various rides.
This meant my tried-and-tested 240w FTP in late September was cut nearly 15% to 210w in one fell swoop in early October (numbers from the National Hill Climb in late October, the only race I've cared about since I got pregnant, confirm this). Then from the end of November onwards I gradually gained some back, leaving me with about 215-220w these days, though I feel that may drop again as my lungs seem to become more and more encroached by a growing baby! So my PMC chart below is based on those estimates, meaning the TSS and CTL numbers will be a best estimate as well.

PMC from September til now (week 28).
I was interested right from the start in trying to stay as fit as possible throughout pregnancy, and scientific curiosity motivated me to track it as best I could. So much to my delight, about halfway through the second trimester I realised that I was getting stronger again, and actually wanting to push myself a bit harder. Within reason of course! My body simply won't let me push into uncomfortable territory for long these days anyway; I can hover happily around a sweet-spot tempo effort but any hard effort leaves me cranky and tired afterwards.
But I can still ride lots and often, as long as I stop frequently and put easy days between hard days. Last week I had a TSS of 780, putting in over 350km and 13 hours of riding, the most I've done in any week since September. And since my season's low of 56 CTL at end of December, I've managed to climb steadily back up to 75. Eventually I will have to stop riding, but if I can keep that kind of fitness going between now and then I'll be pretty happy.
Obligatory bump shot:

That silly look must be what they mean by "glowing"?

Bump in KW kit
The funny thing is, after a huge drop in fitness last autumn (that first trimester really kicked my ass), I've been bouncing back quite steadily. Late last summer, post-peak and post-holidays, my CTL was hovering around 100 with a few road races and a handful of hill climbs to go before taking a real break. Then I got pregnant and by Week 6 -- within two weeks of the embryo implanting itself -- morning sickness had hit and my life was turned upside down.
It was like suffering a two-month hangover. Energy I used to have disappeared, I suddenly went completely off some foods and couldn't get enough of others, training became a miserable chore (so I stopped training, though of course I kept riding), and generally I felt like crap for the next eight weeks. My CTL plummetted from 100 to 59 by mid-November and while I started to feel better around this point and managed to get out more (week 14 marked a big turning point), the bad weather and then going away for Christmas kept me from any consistent riding for a few more weeks.
In the meantime, I had lost a lot of power and had to rejig my FTP to compensate for it. Not wanting to do any proper FTP testing (and I suspect my power curve has gone a bit haywire these days anyway, what with my top end aerobic power dropping like a rock but my low level endurance dieselling along like it always has), I estimated my threshold using perceived effort and muddling with the intensity factor of various rides.
This meant my tried-and-tested 240w FTP in late September was cut nearly 15% to 210w in one fell swoop in early October (numbers from the National Hill Climb in late October, the only race I've cared about since I got pregnant, confirm this). Then from the end of November onwards I gradually gained some back, leaving me with about 215-220w these days, though I feel that may drop again as my lungs seem to become more and more encroached by a growing baby! So my PMC chart below is based on those estimates, meaning the TSS and CTL numbers will be a best estimate as well.

PMC from September til now (week 28).
I was interested right from the start in trying to stay as fit as possible throughout pregnancy, and scientific curiosity motivated me to track it as best I could. So much to my delight, about halfway through the second trimester I realised that I was getting stronger again, and actually wanting to push myself a bit harder. Within reason of course! My body simply won't let me push into uncomfortable territory for long these days anyway; I can hover happily around a sweet-spot tempo effort but any hard effort leaves me cranky and tired afterwards.
But I can still ride lots and often, as long as I stop frequently and put easy days between hard days. Last week I had a TSS of 780, putting in over 350km and 13 hours of riding, the most I've done in any week since September. And since my season's low of 56 CTL at end of December, I've managed to climb steadily back up to 75. Eventually I will have to stop riding, but if I can keep that kind of fitness going between now and then I'll be pretty happy.
Obligatory bump shot:

That silly look must be what they mean by "glowing"?

Bump in KW kit
Friday, 31 December 2010
The Year of the Bike
There's not much to write about 2010 really (have a look back through my posts throughout the year if you want specifics!) But I have to say that hanging up my running shoes between February and October to focus completely on cycling was not a disappointment. So considering I only managed a total of 120km of running this year, all the stats and figures below are cycling-only.
One thing is for sure: 2010 was the Year of the Bike for me. And I certainly savoured it, as I knew I might never have another year like it! After the kid arrives, I might manage to regain my success in racing or improve my peak power, but somehow I doubt I'll be cycling 1250km a month ever again... well maybe in my 60s. There's hope I suppose.
The geek in me always likes stats and graphs and pictures so rather than a wordy summary, here's a visual and numeric roundup of my year.
Training
Overall very consistent and steady, which surprised me as I wondered if I'd get sick of doing nothing but riding my bike. I definitely took a much-needed year off from my TT bike (it did come out for a few races but nothing I took seriously), and discovered how wonderful my 650c deep section wheels rode (and looked) for road racing. Nonetheless, my trusty and travelled Soloist has now nearly 20,000kms on it, clearly marking its position as my #1 training bike.
By the numbers:
15,166km
562hrs
90,000m climbing
367,000 calories burned

Kms per month on the bike in 2010.

A notable improvement in mean maximal average power between 2009 (dotted line) and 2010 (solid line) -- especially at the top end.

Two peaks in my season, marked by heavy training weeks in March (Lanzarote) and July (Ras Cymru stage race). Also some troughs due to illness, holidays, bad weather, and a brutal plummet at the end of the year thanks to the wonders of the first trimester. Black bars indicate top 100 rides of the year in TSS.
Racing
This year I took part in 64 races (including 4 stage races) with at least one race in every month except December. They were split pretty evenly between men's/mixed and women's-only. And only one DNF.
By the numbers:
20 road races
20 crits
13 TTs
5 cyclocross races
6 hill climbs
9 wins! (4 crits, 5 hill climbs, 1 TT)
18 podiums
29 top 10s

Average power in watts per race type. Hill climbs are definitely the toughest! I have yet to give my powertap wheel a try on the cross bike.

Interestingly, cyclocross is slower than hill climbing, my TT speeds were pathetic this year, and road racing has a much lower HR than anything else.

Steady efforts in TTs, self-preservation (lots of L1!) in road and crit racing, and a whopping 70% of hill climbs spent above Vo2max power.

The red squares denote where I travelled for races in 2010.
And finally
Knowing next to nothing about pregnancy before, I naïvely thought that everything before the "getting fat" stage would be no different from my normal life. Ha ha! Little did I know how rapid my turn from confident cat 1 racer and hill-climbing dynamo to wind-sucking and wheel-sucking (and just sucking in general) rider would be. Literally within two weeks I went from winning hill climbs to barely being able to push my watts over threshold. Very sobering, but also quite amazing! I'm looking forward to a similar increase in power right around July of next year again....

July 2010 as the solid line, and November 2010 as the dotted. Somewhere around 15% of peak power gone in a few short weeks.
One thing is for sure: 2010 was the Year of the Bike for me. And I certainly savoured it, as I knew I might never have another year like it! After the kid arrives, I might manage to regain my success in racing or improve my peak power, but somehow I doubt I'll be cycling 1250km a month ever again... well maybe in my 60s. There's hope I suppose.
The geek in me always likes stats and graphs and pictures so rather than a wordy summary, here's a visual and numeric roundup of my year.
Training
Overall very consistent and steady, which surprised me as I wondered if I'd get sick of doing nothing but riding my bike. I definitely took a much-needed year off from my TT bike (it did come out for a few races but nothing I took seriously), and discovered how wonderful my 650c deep section wheels rode (and looked) for road racing. Nonetheless, my trusty and travelled Soloist has now nearly 20,000kms on it, clearly marking its position as my #1 training bike.
By the numbers:
15,166km
562hrs
90,000m climbing
367,000 calories burned

Kms per month on the bike in 2010.

A notable improvement in mean maximal average power between 2009 (dotted line) and 2010 (solid line) -- especially at the top end.

Two peaks in my season, marked by heavy training weeks in March (Lanzarote) and July (Ras Cymru stage race). Also some troughs due to illness, holidays, bad weather, and a brutal plummet at the end of the year thanks to the wonders of the first trimester. Black bars indicate top 100 rides of the year in TSS.
Racing
This year I took part in 64 races (including 4 stage races) with at least one race in every month except December. They were split pretty evenly between men's/mixed and women's-only. And only one DNF.
By the numbers:
20 road races
20 crits
13 TTs
5 cyclocross races
6 hill climbs
9 wins! (4 crits, 5 hill climbs, 1 TT)
18 podiums
29 top 10s

Average power in watts per race type. Hill climbs are definitely the toughest! I have yet to give my powertap wheel a try on the cross bike.

Interestingly, cyclocross is slower than hill climbing, my TT speeds were pathetic this year, and road racing has a much lower HR than anything else.

Steady efforts in TTs, self-preservation (lots of L1!) in road and crit racing, and a whopping 70% of hill climbs spent above Vo2max power.

The red squares denote where I travelled for races in 2010.
And finally
Knowing next to nothing about pregnancy before, I naïvely thought that everything before the "getting fat" stage would be no different from my normal life. Ha ha! Little did I know how rapid my turn from confident cat 1 racer and hill-climbing dynamo to wind-sucking and wheel-sucking (and just sucking in general) rider would be. Literally within two weeks I went from winning hill climbs to barely being able to push my watts over threshold. Very sobering, but also quite amazing! I'm looking forward to a similar increase in power right around July of next year again....

July 2010 as the solid line, and November 2010 as the dotted. Somewhere around 15% of peak power gone in a few short weeks.
Thursday, 30 December 2010
Not quite a year-end review
More of a preview of 2011 really. I'll write a year-end review tomorrow as New Year's Eve seems more appropriate for maudlin reminiscing.
So what will 2011 bring?
First off, it will bring a new addition to Jibberjim's and my little family. The two of us will become three, though to be honest, we would have been keen to double it -- who doesn't like a two-for-one, plus all the science and research fun that comes with identical siblings! (Just kidding, my monozygotic relatives!) Yes, it runs in the family. And after the horrible first trimester I had, I was frankly wishing that it was twins so I wouldn't have to go through all this again! But alas.
Between now and then (early June is the projection), I'll be trying in earnest to stay fit and healthy and give myself the best chance possible at getting back into shape afterwards, even though I know that will be hard work what with all the sleepless nights, endless feedings, sudden changes in priorities and inevitably steep learning curve I'll be struggling with. Or rather, WE. And hopefully everything between now and then stays nice and boring and uncomplicated. So far so good.
Now that I've gotten past the energy-sapping first few months, I've started to enjoy being pregnant a bit -- all this eating what I want without really caring, being amazed at heartbeats and ultrasound scans, and learning to accept the bottomless spiralling pit of my watts/kg. I'll keep riding my bike as long as I can until it's either too uncomfortable or too unwieldy to be enjoyable, and the same for running. Swimming I'm saving as my last resort for getting a good workout when all else fails. It'll also help that the worst of winter will be over before I get too big to feel human, so spring coming and the days getting longer should help with the mental health aspect.
The timing of it all turned out to be pretty ideal. I managed a full season of racing in 2010 with the small exception of the national hillclimb which in the throes of morning sickness was simply a bridge too far. If it had been just a few weeks earlier, the story might have been different. However, this does give me a goal for 2011! I won't be road racing or TTing at all, but I can probably manage to train for a few 3-5 minute hillclimbs, what with that extra bit of Vo2max that pregnancy brings. And for anyone wondering if it's advisable to continue with training during pregnancy, here are a few useful articles and studies that show how beneficial it is (to both mother and baby).
http://www.sirc.ca/sportcanada/may08/documents/Pregnancy.pdf
http://www.ideafit.com/fitness-library/the-pregnant-athlete
http://www.exercise-ball-exercises.com/exercise-and-pregnancy.html
Not to mention an entire book that says you don't have to keep your heartrate below that arbitrarily-devised 140bpm or stop running/riding/living during pregnancy!
Exercising Through Your Pregnancy by James Clapp
Most of all, we're very excited and looking forward to our new little athlete and all the fun and joy he or she will bring. First teeth, first words, first bike... you know how that goes!
So what will 2011 bring?
First off, it will bring a new addition to Jibberjim's and my little family. The two of us will become three, though to be honest, we would have been keen to double it -- who doesn't like a two-for-one, plus all the science and research fun that comes with identical siblings! (Just kidding, my monozygotic relatives!) Yes, it runs in the family. And after the horrible first trimester I had, I was frankly wishing that it was twins so I wouldn't have to go through all this again! But alas.
Between now and then (early June is the projection), I'll be trying in earnest to stay fit and healthy and give myself the best chance possible at getting back into shape afterwards, even though I know that will be hard work what with all the sleepless nights, endless feedings, sudden changes in priorities and inevitably steep learning curve I'll be struggling with. Or rather, WE. And hopefully everything between now and then stays nice and boring and uncomplicated. So far so good.
Now that I've gotten past the energy-sapping first few months, I've started to enjoy being pregnant a bit -- all this eating what I want without really caring, being amazed at heartbeats and ultrasound scans, and learning to accept the bottomless spiralling pit of my watts/kg. I'll keep riding my bike as long as I can until it's either too uncomfortable or too unwieldy to be enjoyable, and the same for running. Swimming I'm saving as my last resort for getting a good workout when all else fails. It'll also help that the worst of winter will be over before I get too big to feel human, so spring coming and the days getting longer should help with the mental health aspect.
The timing of it all turned out to be pretty ideal. I managed a full season of racing in 2010 with the small exception of the national hillclimb which in the throes of morning sickness was simply a bridge too far. If it had been just a few weeks earlier, the story might have been different. However, this does give me a goal for 2011! I won't be road racing or TTing at all, but I can probably manage to train for a few 3-5 minute hillclimbs, what with that extra bit of Vo2max that pregnancy brings. And for anyone wondering if it's advisable to continue with training during pregnancy, here are a few useful articles and studies that show how beneficial it is (to both mother and baby).
http://www.sirc.ca/sportcanada/may08/documents/Pregnancy.pdf
http://www.ideafit.com/fitness-library/the-pregnant-athlete
http://www.exercise-ball-exercises.com/exercise-and-pregnancy.html
Not to mention an entire book that says you don't have to keep your heartrate below that arbitrarily-devised 140bpm or stop running/riding/living during pregnancy!
Exercising Through Your Pregnancy by James Clapp
Most of all, we're very excited and looking forward to our new little athlete and all the fun and joy he or she will bring. First teeth, first words, first bike... you know how that goes!
Thursday, 18 November 2010
Beating bike thieves
Every now and then I post something useful to the Kingston Wheelers forum (sort of like the proverbial infinite number of monkeys typing at infinite keyboards, yada yada) and it occurs to me that it might be nice to post it to the wider world. So today's blog topic, beating bike thieves -- not literally although if faced with one in real life I might like to give him a beating -- is in response to a clubmate trying to track down his nicked bike and see the thief prosecuted and a timely Guardian bike blog post.
Another well-meaning clubmate writes:
My response:
The truth is, if they really want your bike, they'll take it. All the best locks and deterrents in the world are only useful to the point that it becomes too much hassle for undiscerning thieves to steal yours so they go for some other poor sucker's bike instead. But if they really want yours, they'll find a way to get it. :( This is true the world over (having lived in Vancouver, Toronto, Utrecht and now here, I've heard so many tales of stolen bikes that it's just depressing to think about).
The only answer: if you can't keep an eye on your bike all the time or lock it somewhere completely safe, then ride the crappiest bike you can that still gets you from A to B comfortably, safely and reasonably quick. Or resign yourself to having it stolen eventually. Or both.
In Holland this means the rustiest hulking piece of crap omafiets, preferably painted weird colours or covered in tape. Here it means probably an old tourer or MTB with slicks. Almost certainly not a nice 80s retro fixie, or even a modern day fixie, or a Brompton, or anything remotely racey or bling.
Sad but true. I'll admit I'm a bit paranoid about cafe stops on club runs, making sure I can always see my bike. But it only needs to happen once to make you feel completely emasculated, furious and sad.
Btw, the LFGSS forum has some good stuff:
-- the (currently 105 pages long) "stolen bikes" thread, occasionally one turns up and everyone is ecstatic
-- the "what to do if your bike is stolen" thread
-- the "locks that work" thread
-- and my favourite, the "how not to lock your bike" thread, including this great example:
Another well-meaning clubmate writes:
It's so sad reading that the guy who has had 8 bikes stolen telling people to expect your bike not to be there when you return. It's so shitty that he has come to accept that.
My response:
The truth is, if they really want your bike, they'll take it. All the best locks and deterrents in the world are only useful to the point that it becomes too much hassle for undiscerning thieves to steal yours so they go for some other poor sucker's bike instead. But if they really want yours, they'll find a way to get it. :( This is true the world over (having lived in Vancouver, Toronto, Utrecht and now here, I've heard so many tales of stolen bikes that it's just depressing to think about).
The only answer: if you can't keep an eye on your bike all the time or lock it somewhere completely safe, then ride the crappiest bike you can that still gets you from A to B comfortably, safely and reasonably quick. Or resign yourself to having it stolen eventually. Or both.
In Holland this means the rustiest hulking piece of crap omafiets, preferably painted weird colours or covered in tape. Here it means probably an old tourer or MTB with slicks. Almost certainly not a nice 80s retro fixie, or even a modern day fixie, or a Brompton, or anything remotely racey or bling.
Sad but true. I'll admit I'm a bit paranoid about cafe stops on club runs, making sure I can always see my bike. But it only needs to happen once to make you feel completely emasculated, furious and sad.
Btw, the LFGSS forum has some good stuff:
-- the (currently 105 pages long) "stolen bikes" thread, occasionally one turns up and everyone is ecstatic
-- the "what to do if your bike is stolen" thread
-- the "locks that work" thread
-- and my favourite, the "how not to lock your bike" thread, including this great example:

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